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No doubt, that Nigeria is faced with an acute food crisis. A report by the Food Agriculture Organisation (FAO) had projected that about 20 million Nigerians will be faced with food insecurity between June and August this year. While that was explained to issues of banditry, insurgency, displacement, long-term effects of Covid-19 pandemic, high inflation and soaring commodity prices, that has been made worse by the Russia-Ukraine War.
This development reinforces the argument that while the food crisis is largely self-inflicted, that it is partly externally induced by the nature of the international economic order in which poor, but endowed countries, are reduced to exporting what they have, unrefined, in exchange for what they do not need, but have been conditioned to desire is also not in doubt. Nowhere is the convoluted and contradictory nature of the international economic order as pronounced than the area of agriculture in Africa. With an estimated 65 per cent of yet to be cultivated arable land in the world, Africa spends over $30 billion importing food, much of which it has no business importing. “As it does, it decimates its own agriculture, spends scarce foreign exchange importing what it can and should produce, exports jobs and makes itself subject to price effects from global commodity supply shocks”, says Dr Akinwumi Adesina.
The situation is particularly pathetic and ironic for Nigeria. Though she has over 80 million hectares of arable land, with over half yet to be utilised, with almost 300 cubic metres of water available from four and other smaller ones, allowing for a large expanse of this land to be irrigated, she spends about $10 billion annually importing food and agricultural produce, most of which are wheat, rice, poultry, fish and consumer-oriented foods. One of the adverse effects of high food importation bill is imported inflation, with the pressure on the exchange rate leading to devaluation-triggered inflation with prices of food items shooting up, beyond the reach of those at the bottom of the ladder, as it is the case now.
Nigeria’s importation of food and agricultural products from the US only averaged $537 million in the last five years, with about 70 per cent of that wheat. In 2020, Nigeria imported 1.29 million metric tonnes of wheat from US, being the fifth largest US wheat importer in the world. Yet, that was only 40 per cent of what Nigeria imports, as the hold on the market by US-origin wheat. Whereas Nigeria is a beneficiary of African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), she is not able to take full advantage of that due to concerns about the country’s SPS/food safety system, with exports of Nigerian food and agricultural products averaging $50 million annually.
Wheat has become the third most widely consumed grain in Nigeria after maize and rice. Importation of wheat, according to some estimates, is $4 billion per annum, having become the highest single imported commodity for Nigeria for over a decade. However, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) puts the annual cost at $2 billion, with wheat importation being highest food item and the second highest item on Nigeria’s import bill.
In 2021, Nigeria imported wheat worth N1.29 trillion, representing over 70 per cent increase from the N756.92 billion for 2020, tripling the figure of N401.31 for 2019, which suggests the increasing switch in demand towards wheat-based foods. Indeed, it is not just how much Nigeria spends on importation of wheat that is of concern, it is the annual growth rate in consumption, projected at 5 per cent, that is even more worrisome. “By the year 2030, Nigeria will be importing 10 million metric tonnes of wheat every year”, according to a projection in 2014 by the then Minister of Agriculture, Dr Akinwumi Adesina.
Some have explained the increasing acceptance and demand for wheat to the fact that it stands out from other commodities, not only for its unique properties and high gluten content, but the multiple uses to which the wheat flour is put. It serves as base for much of the activities in the baking and confectioneries world, as well as in the production of noodles, biscuits, spaghetti and other foreign food items. These are food items that have gained wider acceptance in Nigeria in recent years.
However, as with other transplanted or acquired tastes by Nigeria, especially worse with wheat, the local capacity for production is at variance with the huge appetite and consumption. Yila Yusuf, a Director with the CBN, estimates that “only one percent or 63,000 MT of wheat, out of the five to six million metric tonnes of wheat consumed annually, was produced locally.” As it is with data on importation, there is no consensus on actual figures. Dr Solomon Asefia, Coordinator of the SARD-SC wheat project had in 2017 disclosed that Nigeria’s local production figure had increased from 70,000 metric tonnes as of 2012 to 400,000 metric tonnes in 2016. However, even with 400,000 metric that would still be an insignificant percentage, placed side by side with import figures, which have been on the increase over the years. From 350,000 tonnes in 1971, imports have grown at an average annual rate of 10.21 per cent to 6.5 million tonnes in 2020.
Indeed, the wheat crop is indeed more adapted to temperate climates, where they grow more easily. It struggles to grow in the tropics, with the added disincentive that the varieties here are not as suitable for the demands of the market due to their low gluten content. But the problem runs deeper, some experts argue, which is the reason availability of improved seeds have not magically impacted on local capacity and acceptance of their products.
In their book, The Wheat Trap, Andrae and Beckman argue that the real problem we are faced with is that of a conundrum, “which leads developing countries into dependence on imported foods, which become staple, while the local conditions do not favour their production.” So, the problem we are confronted with is a foundational one, with foreign tastes, induced and acquired over time, driving a dependence on large-scale importation of food items that were not traditionally ours. To Andrae and Beckman, “the supply-side shortages in Nigerian food production were, to a large extent, a result of policies which allowed the massive importation of foodstuffs.”
Andrae and Beckman not only foresaw the large-scale importation of food items as we currently have, they traced the history of Nigeria’s journey of wheat importation to as far back as the pre-colonial and colonial era. According to Haruna, even though the cultivation of wheat started in the 16th century, the diverse uses of wheat was not known to local farmers, with the quantity produced (between 3,000 and 5,000 metric tonnes) meeting local consumption level at the time. However, the colonialists would ignore local production and varieties to start importation of foreign wheat, introducing this to the elites, touting its “superiority and diverse uses”. So rather than solve the problem of local production through the provision of a variety with higher percentage of gluten content and help farmers to improve on their yield per hectare, Nigeria settled for importation thus invariably falling into the wheat trap.
By the 1970s, the imported variety had begun to become entrenched. With population growth, increased urbanisation and copycat fast-food consumption patterned after Western lifestyle, coupled with resistance from vested interests who lobbied against restriction of importation, the journey to Nigeria becoming dependent on foreign wheat had begun, as consumption of wheat-based products began to spiral out of control.
By the 1980s, alarm bells had begun ringing. Between 1971 and 1981, on account of what was then referred to as ‘kangaroo importation,’ agricultural import bills, including that for wheat, increased thirteen-fold from $192 million to $450 million (Haruna & co.). The government of the day was forced to come up with policies to address the problem. That led in 1982 to the establishment of river basins and provision of dams to support local production with irrigation facilities. Following the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme, the Babangida government in 1986 placed a ban on the importation of wheat and launched the “Accelerated Wheat Production Programme” to drive local production. That shot up local production to about 150,000 metric tonnes, but it plummeted down to 50,000 metric tonnes when the ban was rescinded in 1990.
If anything, that short-lived ban established that there was some measure of local capacity for production, if encouraged. While some are of the view that Nigeria cannot successfully produce wheat in commercial quantity because of the inclement weather, Dr Akinwumi Adesina argues that it is only a myth. In 2014, while he was Minister, he launched “two new high-yield, early maturing, heat-tolerant and drought-resistant wheat varieties developed by the Lake Chad Research Institute (LCRI) in conjunction with the International Centre for Agricultural Research in Dry areas (ICARDA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), and Institute for Agricultural Research (IAR), Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, with assistance from the Federal Government and grant from the African Development Bank”. To discourage importation, the government had in 2012 increased import duties from 5 per cent to 15 per cent, while also pushing out a cassava-inclusion policy, mandating a 10 per cent inclusion of cassava with a proposal for 40 per cent cassava-wheat composite flour, going forward.
The government launched the Wheat Transformation Agenda, with the objective of raising local production from 70,000 metric tonnes in 2013 to 1.5 million metric tonnes in 2017. But despite the provision of subsidies, improved seedlings, credit facilities and inputs such as fertilisers, as well as tractors and implements to farmers, several factors, stemming from poor policy implementation, resistance from stakeholders, weak supply chain contributed to the failure of the policy. Nigeria did not come close to meeting that target, which the Minister had assured will create one million jobs and generate income of N42 billion for the farmers.
The situation has since worsened with terrorists and Bandits making farming even more difficult. The North-East had first suffered a setback because of the insurgency there, with millions displaced from their traditional homes and farms. Then, bandits made it difficult for meaningful faming activities to be carried out in the North-West. Yet, along with the North Central, these two regions, are better placed in terms of climatic conditions and experience for wheat production. The insecurity challenge has therefore compounded the problem, making the task of finding a way out of the wheat trap or attaining self-sufficiency much more difficult.
By official figures, which might not even be the full picture, Nigeria has spent almost N3 trillion in the last three years importing wheat. Rather than backward-integrate in the direction of wheat farming, industry players have largely moved in the direction of ‘forward-integration’ by setting up facilities to produce wheat-based products, as the opportunities triggered by increased consumption is difficult to resist. According to the CBN, wheat importation is one of the major factors in Nigeria’s exchange imbalance, indicating that it plans to place wheat and sugar on the Forex restriction list.
With wheat milling capacity in Nigeria estimated at over 8.2 million metric tonnes, some claim that flour millers are not quite keen on off-take of wheat from local farmers, who have found a way to informally export some of their products to neighbouring countries. However, flour millers insist otherwise, debunking the claim that they are not ready to support local production. Olam, Nigeria’s foremost miller, has a record of supporting local farmers and only recently announced her plans to introduce the findings of research trials it conducted on the cultivation of a heat-tolerant variety of wheat, assuring the Minister of Agriculture that the new seed varieties will help to drive growth and expansion of wheat production in the country. But backward integration is a long-term affair. As noted by Mukul Mathur, CEO of Olam Nigeria, “typically, investments in agriculture on the production side require high investments, up front investments and long gestation periods. The uncertainty can be a big determinant of the stakes you put on the table.”
There is no doubt that Nigeria has found itself in a trap, with respect to the preference for wheat-based products on the part of Nigerians, as Bread and other products have become an integral part of the diet. As Dr Idowu Sobowale argues, “We cling to wheat-based products, not necessarily because we like then better than cassava-based foods, but because they are actually often cheaper and more convenient to prepare and serve. But price is key to the preference we have demonstrated for those food items.”
The focus must shift to ways of resolving the logjam, rather than seeking whom to blame. Indeed, the problem is akin to that with rice. However, with wheat, it is not only worse; it is more difficult and almost intractable, yet solutions must be found. Perhaps, there is a cue from some of the solutions adapted in resolving the rice problem. Linking import allocation quota with the extent of investment in backward integration is one that we should consider along with a sleuth of other incentives and initiatives on crop improvement. We should also take another look at the Adesina proposal for a progressive adoption of composite flour, to help drive local production of wheat, while also reducing dependence on the product.
The Indian example is one that recommends itself; especially with respect to the impact import restriction can have on reduction of level of importation, while increasing local production. An increase of import duty from 30 per cent to 40 per cent saw importation by flour millers drop from 5.7 million metric tonnes for 2016/2017 to 1.65 million metric tonnes for 2017/18. From 98.51 million metric tonnes in 2016/2017 and 97.11 million metric tonnes, wheat production in India for 2019/20 increased to 102.2 million tonnes, with only 100,000 tonnes imported. However, this was not a case of overnight success, as efforts to grow took many years, with programmes such as the ‘Green Revolution’ and the All India Coordinated Wheat Improvement Programme (AICWIP). One of the initiatives that helped in boosting local production is that the government buys about a quarter of the produce at state-set prices to build stocks, which is then used to run a major welfare programme. With purchase guaranteed, production is then encouraged. It is instructive that while India is the world’s second largest producer of wheat after China, she is not among the top-ten exporters in the world, which means the focus is more on meeting needs locally.
This is another issue that does require for there to be ‘elite Consensus’. On account of acquisition of foreign taste, we have thrown the country into a conundrum, which needs an urgent resolution. Do we want to stick to wheat? If we want to, then the sensible thing to do is to find a way to grow locally, rather than spending over N1 trillion annually to import. Otherwise, we must find a way to wean ourselves off foreign wheat, reconsider the Adesina proposition of composite-flour, as a first step in our journey to rediscover what we traded away.
Indeed, attaining self-sufficiency in wheat production, if Nigeria desires it, is not beyond realisation. With adequate preparation, determination, political will and a re-orientation of Nigerians to accommodate the shocks that might come in terms of a change with food preferences, taste and lifestyle, it can be achieved over time. There are lessons to learn from the way the rice problem was addressed that has seen Nigeria setting herself on the path of self-sufficiency in local production, if the current trajectory is followed through and perfected. However, as we can see, even for rice, it has taken almost a decade of consistency in terms of policy and governmental support to get to where we are. Wheat is not rice. Not only is wheat a critical component in the production of bread, which is a staple, it is also used in the production of so many other food items, such as noodles, spaghetti, and cereals that Nigerians have come to embrace. So, it is not a problem that can be solved by fiat or an immediate ban on importation. That will trigger a dislocation, not only in the production value chain, but its impact will also be felt across many sectors of the economy with grave impact on the already precarious unemployment nightmare, with a steep rise in the price of bread and other food items. That is capable of triggering social upheaval. No doubt, Nigeria would still need to continue to import wheat until local production reaches an appreciable level, but the process must be carefully modulated and coordinated with backward integration plans by importers, attached to milestones.
Nevertheless, and more importantly, the existing gap between local production capacity and present requirement is not only huge; the crop variety is also different, which would need for the mills and bakers to make necessary adjustments. However, these adjustments on the part of government, growers, millers, producers of by-products, bakers, consumers need to be made, and urgently too. We cannot keep pushing the can down the road, hoping for a magical turn-around. Nigeria is in a trap and getting out of it, starts with recognising and accepting that to be a fact. But it will take a strategic and concerted plan, backed by the right political will to get out of this trap. It won’t be by fiat, lest we are consumed by something else in a bid to flee from consuming what we ought not to have been consuming in the first place.
That the paradox of our obsession with rice is finally being resolved offers hope that we should be able to get out of the wheat trap, with sincerity and purposefulness. It is time to have a serious conversation, starting at the highest level of government about the wheat trap. An emergency declaration with a clear roadmap, possibly designed around the ‘Wheat Compact Project’ has become a matter of urgency and necessity. That is the only way to overcome this externally induced, self-sustained trap Nigeria has found herself in, characterised by the prioritisation of consumption of what she does not have at the expense of what she produces or capable of producing.
Simbo Olorunfemi works for Hoofbeatdotcom, a Nigerian communications consultancy and publisher of Africa Enterprise. Twitter: @simboolorunfemi